Chart of the Week: The biggest beneficiary of tariffs
Tariff concerns drive gold and copper prices higher.
This week’s chart comes from Morningstar analysts’ Mining Q2 2025 outlook.
Gold is again higher than the previous quarter as worries over tariffs affecting economic growth see a flight to safety. Positive exchange-traded fund flows, strong central bank buying, and a weaker US dollar are additional tailwinds.
The London Metal Exchange copper price, which we use, is flat. However, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange copper price is up and near historical highs as investors try to get ahead of 50% tariffs on US copper imports expected Aug. 1, 2025.
Iron ore is modestly lower on declining China steel enduser demand and higher steel exports, although metallurgical coal is broadly flat. Despite oversupply and reduced demand due to weaker industrial production, the thermal coal price is higher as some miners such as Glencore reduce production. Lithium is lower and remains below cost support due to oversupply despite strong demand growth. Iron ore, copper, and gold prices remain elevated compared with the past and the cost curve.
The Outlook is available to Morningstar Investor subscribers, and also covers our most attractive opportunities in the sector, valuation snapshots and the outlook for the sector.
For more analysis on Gold and its place in investors’ portfolios, my colleague Simonelle Mody has covered it in her column, Young & Invested. She explores how the recent surge of gold and crypto has proliferated discussions over the optimal asset allocation for modern times. Sim unpacks why the price of gold has exploded and whether the asset should hold a place in the portfolios of younger investors.
You’re able to find previous editions of Chart of the Week here.
