The higher gold price more than offset lower sales volumes and increased unit costs in Newmont’s (ASX.NEM) second-quarter result. Adjusted net profit after tax rose around 40% on a year ago to USD 2.2 billion or USD 2.10 per share, though it fell about 30% on first-quarter 2026 as the gold price weakened.

Why it matters: Guidance is unchanged. Newmont is tracking broadly in line with our unchanged forecast for 2026 EPS of USD 9.07, up from USD 6.89 in 2025. We assume a lower average gold price in the second half of the year compared with the first based on the futures curve.

The bottom line: No change to our estimates or our $97 (USD $67) fair value estimate per share for no-moat Newmont. Shares have fallen about 30% on a 25% weaker gold price since late January 2026 but still trade materially above our intrinsic assessment.

  • This is likely driven by the gold price of about USD 4,100 per ounce being twice our assumed midcycle price of USD 2,050 based on our estimate of the long-run marginal cost of production.
  • The forecast 2026 dividend per share of USD 1.04 offers a mediocre 1.1% forward yield. Newmont is still making value-dilutive share repurchases, but we’d prefer even higher dividends, especially given the pristine balance sheet. Net cash was USD 3.4 billion at end June 2026.

Long view: We forecast a five-year NPAT CAGR of negative 6%, with a weaker gold price more than offsetting our forecast for higher sales volumes and lower unit costs.

  • We forecast sales volumes to rise to around 6.2 million ounces in 2030, up from 5.3 million in 2026.
  • Increased production from its 38.5% and 40.0% stakes in the Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo joint ventures with no-moat Barrick, respectively, and Lihir, Tanami, and Boddington drive the increase. Higher volumes should drive a reduction in unit costs.

Lower Near-Term Assumed Gold Prices Drive a Reduction in Newmont’s Fair Value

Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner, with a portfolio reflecting three major deals in recent years. First, it acquired fellow gold producer Goldcorp for a relatively mild premium in 2019. Not only did it avoid paying a high price, Newmont also extracted better performance at mines where Goldcorp struggled.

Second, it combined its crown jewel Nevada assets with Barrick Gold’s in a joint venture called Nevada Gold Mines, also in 2019. With Barrick as the operator, Newmont owns 38.5% of the partnership. It also acquired Australian-based gold miner Newcrest in 2023.

We forecast Newmont to increase attributable gold sales volumes from its continuing portfolio to around 6.2 million ounces in 2030, up from roughly 5.7 million in 2025 and 5.3 million in 2026. The increase is driven by higher gold production from its 38.5% and 40% stakes in the NGM and Pueblo Viejo joint ventures with Barrick, respectively, Lihir, Tanami, and Boddington. As part of bedding down the Newcrest acquisition, Newmont sold a number of its higher-cost, smaller mines in 2024 and 2025. These mines accounted for around 20% of total volumes in 2024.

It also produces material amounts of copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts from its various gold mines. Newmont had about two decades of gold reserves along with significant byproduct reserves at end December 2025.

In aggregate, the company sits around the middle of the cost curve but we expect some improvement.

Bulls Say

  • Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner, with copper and other byproducts providing some diversification, representing around 15% of forecast midcycle revenue from 2030.
  • The Nevada joint venture with Barrick is the largest gold producing area in the world, and will likely see even higher production in coming years.
  • Gold companies tend not to follow general economic cycles. They can also provide a hedge to inflation risk.

Bears Say

  • Bigger is not always better in gold mining. Newmont’s operations span four continents, increasing complexity and difficulty managing the assets.
  • Newmont’s unit cash costs are around the industry average, meaning it is more affected by falling gold prices than its lower-cost competitors.
  • Gold is subject to the whims of investors, who can move as a herd and affect the gold price.

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