The iron ore price is broadly flat compared with last quarter. While China’s steel production in the first quarter of 2026 is down 5% year on year to about 250 million metric tons, its iron ore imports are up 11% to around 315 million metric tons.

Why it matters: Our iron ore price assumptions are unchanged. We still assume it averages about USD 100 per metric ton from 2026 to 2028 based on the futures curve, and around USD 75 midcycle from 2030 based on our estimate of the long-run marginal cost of production.

The bottom line: Fair value estimates for our iron ore coverage are also unchanged. No-moat Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) is the cheapest, with shares 15% below its $75 fair value due to lingering concerns over the lithium rout and elevated debt levels. Wide-moat Deterra (ASX:DRR) trades close to its fair value of $4.40.

  • Driven by spot iron ore at about USD 105 per metric ton being significantly above our midcycle assumption, no-moat Vale (NYSE:VALE) and Fortescue (ASX:FMG) trade at 20% and 30% premiums to their USD 15 and $16.60 per share fair values, respectively.
  • Along with the strong copper price, this is also likely why no-moat BHP Group (ASX:BHP), Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), and Anglo American (LSE:AAL) trade around 25%, 40%, and 70% above their respective fair values of $44, $125, and GBX 2,200. Rio shares also benefit from the elevated aluminum price. No-moat Teck’s (NYSE:TECK) fair value remains USD 35.

Big picture: The Iran war is likely to keep commodity prices even more volatile than usual until it is resolved. Higher energy prices due to the conflict could hurt global economic growth and commodity demand, while also pushing up miners’ operating costs.

  • In particular, given that it is the biggest source of demand for most commodities, any slowdown in China’s economic growth is likely to be bearish for commodity prices.
  • However, we think the Chinese government will respond with increased stimulus should the country’s economic growth soften materially.