This is our first weekly wrap for the August 2026 earnings season. This week of earnings kicked off with a handful of larger names across basic materials, financials and REITS. Among those include RIO, REA and LNW. Here’s what our analysts had to say following each result and whether our fair value changed.

Once earnings season wraps up, I’ll combine the standout winners and losers from each weekly review and analyse the underlying trends. This will help investors cut through the noise and understand the key themes that shaped the August reporting season, as well as where market expectations moved most sharply.

Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $125 (32% premium at 05 August)
  • Rating: ★★
  • Moat: None

Rio Tinto’s interim 2026 underlying net profit is 43% higher on a year ago, to USD 6.9 billion or USD 4.21 per share, due to higher copper and aluminum prices. It declared a USD 2.11 fully franked interim dividend, also up 43% on an unchanged 50% payout ratio. The higher dividend is likely why shares rose 3.5% on the day of the result.

Stronger commodity prices see copper (36%) and aluminum (20%) comprise more than half of first-half underlying EBITDA compared with around 45% in total last year. Iron ore makes up almost all of the remainder, with lithium immaterial. Earnings were assisted by a lower-than-expected effective tax rate of 25% for the half compared with previous guidance for around 30%.

The soaring copper price is likely the primary driver of the premium to fair value. Copper trades near all-time highs at about USD 6.20 per pound on optimism over rising data center and energy transition demand. This is materially above long-term cost support, which we estimate at around USD 3.80 midcycle from 2030.

Our updated 2026 dividend per share of USD 4.66 is up 16% on 2025, offering a 4% forward yield at the current share price. Rio typically targets a higher payout in the second half than in the first, and we assume a 55% payout for the full year. Our fair value estimate remains $125 for no-moat Rio Tinto, with shares screening as expensive.

Pinnacle Investment Management (ASX:PNI)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $13.30 (44% premium at 05 August)
  • Rating: ★★
  • Moat: None

Pinnacle Investment reported a 21% increase in fiscal 2026 underlying NPAT to $138 million, driven by record net inflows of $33 billion, 19% of opening funds under management, or FUM. Affiliate profit margins on funds management activities, excluding performance fees, also improved. The shares rose 11% on the day of reporting.

The results missed our forecasts. Affiliate profit share, affiliate net inflows, and non-affiliate revenue were lower than expected, while non-investment-linked expenses ran higher. Growth is costlier to deliver, with fee margins likely to compress in a competitive industry.

Committed acquisitions and investments consume most of Pinnacle’s available cash; its CBA debt facility is fully drawn; and the dividend payout ratio is close to 100% of adjusted NPAT. This leaves the firm highly reliant on boutique earnings to fund further growth.

That reliance warrants caution as a market downturn would hit boutique revenue and Pinnacle’s own cash flow at the same time. This leaves limited countercyclical capacity to fund acquisitions—precisely the playbook that historically built the firm’s franchise value.

We reduce our fair value estimate for no-moat Pinnacle by 5% to $13.30 a share. Shares are considerably overvalued. The market appears enamored of current growth momentum while overlooking the cost and fee margin concessions required to deliver it. The valuation cut reflects a lower affiliate profit share than we expected, driven by constrained capital capacity to increase affiliate stakes or continue raising expenses at fiscal 2026’s pace after a period of aggressive acquisitions.

Centuria Office REIT (ASX:COF)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $1.10 (20% premium at 05 August)
  • Rating: ★★★★
  • Moat: None

Centuria Office’s earnings met guidance in fiscal 2026. Funds from operations are 11.2 cents per unit, down 5% from last year, mostly on higher interest expenses. Distributions per unit of 10.1 cents represent a 90% payout of funds from operations (FFO) and are flat year on year.

The results are in line with our forecasts. Management expects FFO to be largely unchanged in fiscal 2027, at 11.3 cents per unit, with the impact of an asset sale offset by rent growth and lower debt costs.

Higher occupancy should lift property values, which could give Centuria Office more favorable pricing when it decides to sell the assets. We still expect more divestments over the medium term. Management is slashing forward distributions by 11% to 9.0 cents per unit, which was expected. This represents an unfranked yield of 10% at the current price.

Portfolio occupancy remains steady at 91%, above the national average. Leasing spreads, the gap between new and existing rent for the same space, were 5%. Office valuation has stabilized in the last 12 months. This is an encouraging sign for our office recovery thesis. Net tangible assets were $1.66 per unit as of June 30, 2026, compared to $1.67 last year.

The balance sheet is stretched, and we would like to see lower gearing (net debt/tangible assets). As at end June 2026, gearing was 44%, above management’s target of 25%-40%. It could stay elevated as fringe office values remain depressed.

Our $1.10 fair value for Centuria Office stands, with the REIT trading at a modest discount to fair value post earnings.

Credit Corp (ASX:CCP)

  • Fair Value Estimate: $12.30 (3% premium at 05 August)
  • Rating: ★★★
  • Moat: None

Credit Corp’s fiscal 2026 underlying NPAT rose 12% to $106 million. The company guided fiscal 2027 NPAT to $110 million-$118 million, an 8% rise at the midpoint. Shares fell more 10% on the day of reporting.

Fiscal 2026 results beat our expectations, with operating margin gains across all three divisions. Fiscal 2027 profit guidance is also considerably above our prior forecast. But underlying drivers look less robust, and the guidance points to more emerging headwinds than durable momentum.

Lower guided US debt ledger purchases likely drove the large share price fall, with the fiscal 2027 pipeline considerably below fiscal 2026’s. Much of last fiscal year’s margin beat came from lower cost growth tied to efficiency initiatives, also flagged as a fiscal 2027 earnings driver.

A new ANZ entrant and rising US debt-ledger prices signal a more competitive debt-purchasing market. Combined with management’s focus on minimizing costs, this points to further headwinds for debt purchase volumes. Consumer lending margins were solid, but rising UK losses are a risk.

Our fair value estimate for no-moat Credit Corp remains $12.30 a share. Shares are now fairly valued. We lift near-term NPAT forecasts for the efficiency-driven earnings uplift. But our fiscal 2029-2031 forecasts are broadly unchanged, up to 20% lower than our fiscal 2027 projections.

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