This week’s insights come from equity analyst Roy Van Keulen’s latest analysis of WisteTech (ASX.WTC) given recent shuffling in management. WiseTech’s share price has fallen around 70% over the past year, widening the gap between its current valuation and our fair value estimate. Governance concerns involving founder Richard White have further pressured investor confidence at a time when sentiment across the ASX technology sector remains fragile.

WiseTech Global Chart 10 years Undervalued

Founder Richard White steps down as Chairman

WiseTech announced that founder Richard White will step down as the company’s executive chair, effective immediately, but will remain on the board as an executive director and continue in his role as chief innovation officer. Shares jumped more than 10%.

White’s position has come under pressure following recent reporting that the Australian Federal Police is investigating him for potential visa fraud and human trafficking through his private company, RealWise. Raelene Murphy, who has been independent director at WiseTech since the start of 2026, has been appointed as the new independent chair. We view the transition as a negative given White’s much longer experience and his track record of expanding the company to where it is today. However, we think White will still have substantial influence in the company, especially given his substantial shareholding and his role as chief innovation officer.

We lower our fair value estimate for the wide-moat company by 6% to $130 per share as we think White will be less effective following his stepping down as executive chair. Despite the rally in the share price, shares continue to screen as materially undervalued due to fears about artificial intelligence.

We think having more captains behind the steering wheel will lead to less certain endeavors being more intensely debated and ultimately compromised, resulting in lower revenue growth. We lower our revenue CAGR forecast by 1% to 20% over the next decade.

We view leadership as a high-leverage input for high-growth companies, meaning it has an outsize effect on the success or failure of a company’s endeavors. Great leadership sets the company in the right direction, avoids distractions from less promising endeavors, and builds the culture.

The big picture

WiseTech’s long-term strategy centers on becoming the operating system for global trade and logistics as the industry digitizes.

We expect the logistics industry to digitize rapidly over the next decade. The logistics industry currently operates with a relatively low level of digitization. However, the market for logistics services naturally selects for the lowest-cost providers and we see digitization as a key driver of cost-savings. We therefore see the process of digitization as inevitable, either through companies adopting digitization to remain competitive or through digital leaders taking market share from the digital laggards.

WiseTech provides logistics companies the technology to digitize. WiseTech’s core product suite, CargoWise, provides the best-in-class software solution for international freight-forwarding by air and ocean, and customs and compliance. We see logistics companies that use the CargoWise international freight-forwarding solution significantly outperforming their peers due to the efficiency and productivity improvements the platform provides. We therefore expect this solution to become the industry default, either through increased customer adoption or through WiseTech’s customers taking market share.

We expect WiseTech to leverage its already dominant position in international freight-forwarding to move into downstream adjacencies, which consist of, in order of functional proximity, road and rail and warehousing. Additionally, with the acquisition of e2open, we also expect WiseTech to move into upstream adjacencies, as it starts servicing beneficial cargo owners with their logistics procurement processes.

Bulls say

  • CargoWise’s international freight-forwarding solution is best-in-class and we expect this solution to become the industry-default.
  • WiseTech is well placed to leverage CargoWise’s market position in international freight-forwarding into adjacent services such as customs and compliance, rail and road, and warehousing.
  • The logistics industry currently operates with a relatively low level of digitization, but we see the process of digitization as largely inevitable.

Bears say

  • The logistics industry is still in the early stages of digitizing, meaning there is high uncertainty as to how large the market opportunity will be for WiseTech’s current and future products.
  • Following the resignation of founder White from the CEO role and his transition to the board as executive chairman, it is unclear whether the company will have the same level of executive leadership.
  • WiseTech’s hasn’t yet incorporated all of its acquisitions into the CargoWise product suite, and the return on those investments could be dilutive if they lack strategic attention.

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