There’s really nothing like the football World Cup. Every four years, countries from around the globe rally behind their first XI in the pursuit of glory. Although our Socceroos fell short in the round 32, it was a phenomenal effort from the boys down under.

With the finals fast approaching, I thought it was fitting to highlight an Australian company in our research coverage with a genuine hand in this FIFA World Cup. The company is Catapult (ASX.CAT), a tech company that develops data tracking wearables for elite athletes.

The wearable technology enables teams to manage injury risk and optimise athletic performance for their players through precise data tracking. These data tracking vests are worn underneath the jersey during games or training. The athletic monitoring segment of the business serves around 5,500 teams globally, including approximately 4,000 professional teams.

This vast array of pro teams includes the national football teams of France, Argentina, Brazil and Canada. Even on the largest of stages, this ASX listed company is kicking goals and you might not have ever heard of them.

Catapult leading the pack

Our analyst Roy Van Keulen initiated coverage on Catapult in February this year. The company’s current strategic focus is both on upselling new products to existing teams and improving insights pulled from their wearables data. Roy expects the acquisition of new customers or teams to be a secondary focus, given they already have a strong presence across a wide array of professional sports.

Catapult is a clear global leader in wearables and player tracking with more than two thirds of the serviced market in 2026. In terms of direct competitors, Catapult has 5x the number of professional teams signed compared to the number two competitor, Statsport. The revenue share in the industry is even larger for Catapult given their product leadership and strong reputation. In Roy’s valuation, he forecasts revenues to grow at an organic compound annual growth rate of 14% over the next decade.

The drivers of this revenue growth stem from advancements from descriptive analytics to predictive and eventually prescriptive analytics. In other words, the data will provide more in game impact on play-by-play decisions and injury prevention. This increases the value of the data from the wearables, which increases Catapult’s ability to increase prices over time. When it comes to professional teams with large salary caps, injury prevention becomes extremely valuable in monetary terms.

No moat Catapult still has a pathway

In the sports analytics industry, the primary source of a moat (or sustainable competitive advantage) derives from intangible assets. In other words, this is the value of the proprietary algorithms that deliver more accurate analytical insights. While Roy notes Catapult exhibits some signs of these intangibles, he does not believe they are sufficient to warrant a durable economic moat.

Despite Catapult’s dominant position in its industry, the company has not materially increased prices of its athlete monitoring solution. Roy notes one reason for not increasing prices is that teams may not yet perceive the analytical advantage as differentiated yet. It can be difficult to directly attribute the presence or absence of injuries due to the analytics alone.

However, this reflects the current stage of sports analytics rather than a flaw in Catapult’s solution. The data collected from wearables takes time to yield more predictive insights such as injury likelihood which coaches can then use to prescribe optimal training schedules.

Roy acknowledges that Catapult may develop an economic moat over time. The company benefits from extremely strong retention metrics. This means teams typically stay with Catapult once they begin using their wearable and video solutions. In fact, the small amount of teams that discontinue business with Catapult are from lower leagues being demoted and losing funding. While retention is strong, there must be clearer evidence of meaningful advancements in its prescriptive analytics before Catapult could warrant an economic moat.

Expansion to film

Catapult has more recently expanded into video analysis (think how athletes study film). The video technology tightly integrates with their athlete wearables and extends Catapult’s proposition into higher value tactical decision making. The video technology is used for post-game analysis and allows coaches to filter and review plays. For example, this includes analysing sprints, passes and tackles awhich links to the wearable data for greater insights.

The main concern is that video and scouting tools are highly competitive and commoditised. Companies such as Hudl are deeply entrenched in the industry and work with a vast majority of professional and amateur sports teams. Hudl has also acquired its own wearable solution to enrich insights around positioning.

While both companies compete to fill the need for prescriptive data in sports, neither is yet to deliver enough insights to increase their pricing capability. Roy believes Catapult’s investment in video is yet to translate into demonstrably higher returns or pricing power.

Shares are discounted

Our $4.70 fair value estimate for Catapult implies the company is trading at a sizeable discount to fair value. Many software companies have fallen out of favour with investors over the past year. Roy’s forecast expects earnings margins to significantly improve over the next ten years. This assumes Catapult continues to gain significant leverage in sales and marketing spending as it monetises its growing analytic capabilities.

While shares trade at a sizeable discount, Catapult has a very high Morningstar risk rating which stems from the downside potential of technological disruption. New entrants may use AI and larger, non-proprietary datasets such as video footage to provide superior analytics over time. This would allow competitors to undercut Catapult on price and slowly take market share. While this is a real threat, it is yet to have any real impact in the current industry.

In the near-term, Catapult remains at lower risk of competitive displacement. Catapult’s market position is strong and is likely to become stronger as it expands into gym and prescriptive analytics.

Catapult has an Exemplary Morningstar Capital Allocation Rating, reflecting a sound balance sheet and exceptional investment efficacy.

Catapult’s balance sheet has a significant net cash position and little debt. Roy also notes recent acquisitions under current management have been favourable and value accretive. This has allowed Catapult to grow efficiently without significant impacts on short term cashflow.

Wrap up

Catapult continues to lead the pack with its wearable technology, attracting many of the world’s top sporting teams, including several FIFA World Cup nations. While the shares are discounted, it still lacks a proven economic moat and long-term risks remain from emerging competitors and technological disruption. The key will be how well Catapult can transition into high value, prescriptive analytics which can drive real returns for shareholders over the long term.

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