The gold price continues to fall. At around USD 4,200 per ounce now, it is down 13% since we last updated our assumed prices. ETF outflows have accelerated, consistent with their tendency to be procyclical and the marginal buyers or sellers. Solid central bank buying partially offsets this.

Why it matters: We now assume gold averages around USD 4,400 from 2026 to 2028, from USD 4,900, based on the futures curve. However, our assumed midcycle price remains about USD 2,050 from 2030 based on our estimate of the long-run marginal cost of production.

The bottom line: With the gold price the biggest driver of their earnings, our covered gold miners’ fair value estimates are all lowered. The shares remain expensive, trading from 30% to 180% above fair value as the market projects the very strong gold bull market in recent years to continue.

  • No-moat Evolution’s (ASX.EVN) fair value estimate falls the least, by 4% to $4.50 per share. Our fair value estimates for no-moat Northern Star (ASX.NST) and Perseus (ASX.PRU) decline 5% to $14.20 and 6% to $3, respectively.
  • No-moat Agnico Eagle (NYSE.AEM) and Barrick (NYSE.B) also each fall 6% to USD 87 and USD 29 per share, respectively, while our estimates for no-moat Kinross (NYSE.KGC) and Newmont (NYSE.NEM) are both reduced by 7%, to USD 9.30 and USD 67, respectively.

Big picture: Despite recent declines, the gold price is still up about 150% since late 2022 on worries over tariffs, geopolitical issues, Western government fiscal deficits and debt levels, and a weaker US dollar. It remains significantly above both historical prices and cost support.

  • Elevated prices are driving strong merger and acquisition activity while also incentivizing organic growth. For example, Northern Star is being pressured by activist investor Elliott to sell all or part of the company.
  • Agnico Eagle has expanded its presence in Finland while also accelerating growth projects, including a recent decision to proceed with its Hope Bay development in northern Canada.

Lowering Northern Star’s Fair Value as the Gold Price Weakens

Northern Star is a midtier global gold miner with mines in Western Australia and Alaska. Its portfolio is a result of significant corporate activity, including 14 acquisitions and four asset sales since 2010. Notable transactions include the purchase of Pogo in Alaska in 2018 and half of the Kalgoorlie Super Pit mine, or Super Pit, in Western Australia, from Newmont in 2020. Northern Star subsequently merged with Saracen in 2021, adding the other half of the Super Pit, as well as the Carosue Dam and Thunderbox assets in Western Australia.

We forecast Northern Star to increase gold sales from its existing mines to about 2 million ounces in fiscal 2030, up from 1.6 million ounces in fiscal 2025, driven by increased production at its Kalgoorlie operations in Western Australia. Roughly 60% of the company’s midcycle sales in fiscal 2030 come from its Kalgoorlie operations. At the end of fiscal 2025, the company had around a decade of reserves.

It bought developer De Grey Mining, owner of the attractive Hemi gold project in Western Australia, in May 2025. The development of Hemi, which we think likely, will add a further 500,000 ounces by around 2030, making Northern Star one of the largest gold miners in the world by production.

The company’s average all-in sustaining cost of about $2,160—around USD 1,400—per ounce for fiscal 2025 places it around the middle of the second quartile on the gold industry cost curve.

Northern Star focuses on buying and owning assets that have been undermanaged by their previous owners, whether due to strategic reasons or because they were relatively immaterial compared with the vendors’ other, larger assets. The company then aims to improve operations and grow production, as well as to increase reserves and mine lives through exploration and/or by acquiring nearby assets that can use the company’s existing processing facilities.

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